Nigeria’s economic story has largely revolved around crude oil exports.

Today, what looks like a new narrative is emerging as refining capacity expands. Natural gas infrastructure is also getting strengthened, while critical minerals are attracting attention and investment.

These developments do not erase the challenges staring the country in the face. That said, they do suggest Nigeria’s resource base is beginning to support a wider search for value creation.

This week’s signals point in that direction.

Africa’s oil demand is forecast to more than double to 9.2 million barrels a day by 2050, according to OPEC’s latest World Oil Outlook. The organization says population growth, industrialization and transport demand will keep oil and gas central to the continent’s economy for decades.

In the case of Nigeria, that oil outlook points to an opportunity beyond its traditional crude exports. The country, Africa’s largest oil producer, now hosts the continent’s biggest refinery in the 650,000-barrel-a-day Dangote plant, and holds one of the world’s largest gas reserves. It is also pushing to process more of its mineral wealth at home against just exporting it raw.

Talking crude, Dangote's refinery has already reduced Nigeria's dependence on imported refined products and positioned the country as a regional supplier. With Nigeria's population projected to reach about 400 million by 2050, the case for expanding domestic refining capacity gets stronger.

That looming demand forms part of the logic behind to raise capacity to 1.4 million barrels a day by 2028. An IPO is expected this year. The group's recent $750 million Eurobond, raised through a five-year private placement, also shows rising investors appetite to fund that expansion.

Gas is following a similar path, with Nigeria LNG still key to export earnings. Billions of dollars in investment have been secured for upstream gas projects to feed the NLNG plant at Bonny Island in Rivers State.

The capital includes a $2 billion commitment for the offshore HI project, operated by Shell under a 40% equity stake with first gas expected in 2028. TotalEnergies is also progressing as operator of the onshore Ubeta field, leveraging its 40% interest to drive the $550 million development toward a 2027 production target.

Nigeria is also pushing more domestic processing of minerals such as lithium and gold, part of a wider move toward retaining more value onshore.

The opportunity looks substantial, but so are the challenges. And those challenges include a widening infrastructure gap.

Nigeria is estimated to face a $2.3 trillion infrastructure deficit. Last June, the head of the Infrastructure Concession Regulatory Commission said the country needs about $100 billion a year to close it, while current public spending covers less than 30% of that amount.

Baker Hughes, a U.S based energy technology company, secured a 13-year lifecycle services contract with Nigeria LNG to support turbomachinery operations at its Bonny Island liquefaction facility, including the long-awaited Train 7 expansion.

The deal with Baker Hughes covers equipment the company supplied for Train 7 in 2021, covering four large turbines and compressors, plus two more turbines for power generation.

NLNG began operations in 1999 with a two-train facility. It now runs six and reported to have delivered more than 6,000 LNG cargoes to customers worldwide. Train 7 was approved in December 2019.

Once completed, Train 7 is expected to increase NLNG’s production capacity from 22 million tonnes per annum to 30 million tonnes, strengthening Nigeria’s position in global liquefied natural gas markets.

Nigeria has announced the discovery of a significant polymetallic deposit in Kaduna State, northwestern Nigeria, containing nickel, copper, gold, platinum group metals and rare earth elements.

The find supports the government’s plan to develop mining into a second major export pillar alongside hydrocarbons.

Authorities have tightened licensing, revoked thousands of inactive mining licences and are pushing for more local processing before export.

S&P Global expects Nigeria to experience one of the strongest inflation shocks among emerging markets this year, citing higher energy prices and fertilizer costs that have fed into domestic prices.

The ratings agency now forecasts average inflation of 16.9%. It also cut Nigeria’s growth forecast by 30% basis point to 3.7% in 2026 and 3.5% in 2027, as higher inflation weigh on household spending and economic activity.

Still, S&P said growth should stay resilient enough to avoid a deeper slowdown, supported by higher oil output and a relatively stable exchange-rate outlook.

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