Fuel queues once defined Nigeria’s energy paradox.

In May 2023, shortly after President Bola Ahmed Tinubu announced that the country’s petrol subsidy was over, filling stations across cities such as Lagos saw long queues as motorists rushed to buy fuel before prices adjusted.

At the time, Africa’s largest crude producer still depended heavily on imported refined fuel.

Today the picture is shifting. The start-up of the Dangote Petroleum Refinery has added large-scale domestic refining capacity, potentially reshaping energy supply and Nigeria’s broader investment case.

New investment signals are also emerging across the economy. In this week’s brief, we track the developments from offshore oil to bank recapitalisation and agricultural export finance.

Nigeria is moving closer to unlocking one of its largest offshore energy investments after President Bola Ahmed Tinubu approved fiscal incentives for the Bonga Southwest Aparo deepwater project.

The move clears a key hurdle for partners led by NNPC Limited and could trigger a Final Investment Decision on a project estimated at $20 billion.

The field, located offshore in the Niger Delta, is expected to deliver about 150,000 barrels of oil a day, plus significant volumes of gas.

Deepwater fields such as Bonga, Agbami and Erha have long supported Nigeria’s offshore output. But new projects slowed in recent years amid regulatory delays and shifting global priorities.

The approval also comes as global energy markets remain sensitive to geopolitical shocks, highlighting oil’s continuing role in the world economy.

Nigeria’s energy position is strengthened both by its crude reserves and new refining capacity. The Dangote refinery, with an initial capacity of 650,000 barrels a day and plans to expand to 1.4 million, already runs at full capacity, processing local crude into fuels and cutting import reliance.

Officials say the new fiscal framework is meant to rebuild investor trust, and hope it will help Nigeria attract more than $100 billion in energy investment by 2030.

A visual signal from Nigeria’s economy

Nigeria’s banking recapitalisation programme is progressing quickly.

The Central Bank of Nigeria says 30 lenders have already met the new minimum capital requirements, with 33 banks raising fresh capital through rights issues, private placements and public offerings.

The recapitalization drive, which is scheduled to conclude on March 31 this year, aims to strengthen the financial sector’s capacity to finance large infrastructure, energy and industrial projects across the economy.

Commodity trader Sunbeth Global Concepts Limited raised ₦165.7 billion through a multi-series commercial paper programme, beating its original ₦100 billion target.

The short-term notes carry tenors ranging from 179 to 364 days, with implied yields between 21% and 23.5%.

Proceeds will finance working capital for the company’s cocoa trading operations as demand for West African cocoa continues to expand.

Nigeria, along with Ghana and Cameroon, remains a major supplier to global chocolate makers.

Nigeria’s economic story continues to evolve, but the direction of capital offer clues. And that’s what we track every week.

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