Nigeria is intensifying efforts to build a $1 trillion economy by 2030, with policymakers and business leaders stressing that double-digit growth, infrastructure investment and macroeconomic stability will be critical to achieving the target.

The Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG) projects GDP growth of 5.5% in 2026, with foreign exchange reserves rising to $52 billion and inflation easing to 16%.

Meanwhile, a survey by PwC of more than 100 chief executives found that 91% expect business expansion business expansion, although many flagged technology disruption risks, particularly in banking and retail.

Minister of State for Finance Doris Uzoka-Anite told the National Economic Council that current growth rates are insufficient to reach the administration’s ambition.

“Achieving a trillion-dollar economy requires a more aggressive expansion,” she said, pointing to the need for large-scale infrastructure investment.

She noted that Nigeria would need more than a century to mobilise the estimated $300 billion infrastructure requirement at current public funding levels.

To bridge the gap, the government is introducing “Investment Budgeting,” a framework designed to de‑risk projects and attract private capital at three to five times the scale of public spending. A $100 billion pool, she noted, could generate $278 billion to $400 billion in output.

The framework forms part of the Renewed Hope Development Plan (2026–2030), the government unveiled last August, aimed at consolidating Nigeria’s reform agenda and actualize the $1 trillion economy target of the administration of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.

Vice President Kashim Shettima described the plan as a bridge between past lessons and future ambitions, aligning medium‑term reforms with Nigeria Agenda 2050.

The push for private‑sector collaboration gathered steam last week when the Nigerian government signed a cooperation agreement with the International Finance Corporation (IFC), a member of the World Bank Group.

The deal aims to enhance project preparation, mobilize private capital, and speed up delivery of bankable infrastructure projects.

Budget Minister Abubakar Bagudu called the agreement a strategic move to ensure Nigeria’s extensive infrastructure needs are met through well‑prepared, investment‑ready projects.

He pointed to Nigeria’s early mobile telephony experience, where investors once doubted a market beyond 500,000 subscribers, only for the sector to grow into a digital economy of more than 100 million users, as proof of the country’s absorptive capacity.

“Nigeria is a country brimming with opportunities,” Bagudu said. “With a population of over 230 million, our needs in rail, energy, water security, healthcare, and digital infrastructure are extensive.

“This agreement aims to ensure that we prepare projects adequately so investors can have confidence and clarity on where to allocate capital.”

He added that the move aligns with President Tinubu’s reform agenda, which prioritizes bold policy choices to stabilize the macroeconomic environment and attract private investment.

United Bank for Africa CEO Oliver Alawuba said Nigeria must sustain at least 10% annual growth to reach the $1 trillion threshold.

“For Nigeria to get there, clearly the country needs to grow in double digit, and the minimum double digit you can get is 10 percent,” he told a finance conference for business editors in Abuja.

He welcomed recent bank recapitalisation measures, describing them as rare alignment between fiscal and monetary policy.

However, he warned that exchange rate pressures could erode nominal GDP if not stabilised.

The naira ended 2025 year near ₦1,500 per dollar, roughly its average rate in the first half of 2025, after depreciating 41% in 2024, signaling stability.

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has also acted to bolster currency stability.

On Wednesday, it granted Bureau de Change operators access to dollars at the official market for the first time, aiming to ease retail shortages and narrow the gap between the naira’s formal and street rates.

Licensed operators can now access foreign exchange through authorized dealers at prevailing rates, a move designed to restore confidence and liquidity.

Analysts highlight five critical levers for Nigeria’s $1 trillion ambition:

1. Manufacturing revival: Prioritize inputs and power, targeting 5GW capacity addition.
2. Agri‑mechanization: Subsidized tractors and seeds to boost yields by 20%.
3. Digital tax net: AI‑driven evasion detection to raise tax‑to‑GDP to 18%.
4. Export potential: Non‑oil exports expansion via AfCFTA to strengthen reserves.
5. Investor confidence: FATF grey‑list exit to sustain FDI inflows.

Uzoka‑Anite cautioned that oil price fluctuations, food supply challenges and climate‑related shocks could slow progress, underscoring the need for resilience in policy design and investment strategies.

But corruption remains structural drag. Nigeria dropped two places to rank 142 out of 180 countries in the latest Transparency International corruption perceptions index. Reforms such as subsidy removal and exchange rate unification aim to reduce leakages, but analysts warn deeper institutional reforms remain necessary to sustain investor confidence.

“Judicial compromise, extortion within the National Assembly, and persistent subsidy fraud continue to frustrate reforms,” Executive Director of the Centre for Fiscal Transparency and Public Integrity, Umar Yakubu, said in a news report featured in Nigeria’s Vanguard newspaper.

PwC’s Impact of Corruption on Nigeria’s Economy report warned that corruption could cost Nigeria up to 37% of its GDP by 2030 if left unchecked.

This projected loss was estimated at nearly $2,000 per person by 2030, highlighting the severe, long-term economic impact of graft on the country's economic output

On the other hand, the 2016 PwC report noted that tackling corruption could unlock as much as $534 billion in additional GDP by 2030, highlighting the stakes for reform credibility.

Nigeria’s path to a $1 trillion economy will depend less on ambition and more on discipline, policy consistency, and institutional credibility.

If reforms are sustained and capital is effectively mobilised, the headline target may become less of stretch goal and more of a natural outcome of deeper structural transformation.

For Africa’s most populous country, the real prize is not the trillion-dollar mark itself, but the creation of a more resilient, investment-ready economy.

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