In February 2024, standing on a pedestrian bridge in Abuja, I watched a river of vehicles inch forward beneath me. Commercial buses, delivery vans, ride-hailing cars and motorcycles were packed into slow-moving traffic.

That scene, which I was fortunate to capture during a commute to the city centre, felt like a metaphor for a resource-rich economy still struggling to move at full speed.

Over the years, that uncertainty has carried additional costs.

Whenever a macro shock pushed up oil prices, the disruption spread across several fronts. Transport fares rose, fuel scarcity worsened, queues lengthened at petrol stations, and strikes or protests often followed, slowing movement and economic activity. Appointments were cancelled, movement became restricted, and my pocket bore the brunt.

For a journalist working across formats for several outlets, those were not good times for business.

I remember spending nights in the newsroom while working at a public broadcaster, not just to meet deadlines but to secure uninterrupted electricity so I could continue reporting for international clients after my shift ended.

Back then, I combined full-time employment with freelancing to get the best of both worlds, like many Nigerians building contingency plans around an economy that rarely offered certainty.

Today, as Nigeria’s economy recalibrates toward a more market-facing and investment-driven direction, I have also recalibrated. I now work as a full-time independent journalist, with a more flexible schedule that fits this new phase.

Challenges remain, but the emerging playing field, shaped by pro-investor reforms, is hard to ignore.

This week’s dispatch examines what the early signals look like.

Nigeria, like many resource-rich countries, need critical investments to unlock its full potential.

However, attracting the needed capital has been a major hurdle, including the oil sector, the country’s largest foreign exchange earner. That hurdle has limited the country’s ability to attract the scale of long-term investment needed to unlock its full potential as a nation rich in oil, gas and minerals.

There are signs that is beginning to change. A combination of subsidy removal, exchange-rate reform and a more predictable regulatory environment is gradually improving the investment case for Africa’s most populous economy.

While capital remains cautious, it is becoming harder to argue that Nigeria is closed for business.

Last July, Dangote Petroleum Refinery completed a $2.5 billion private equity placement, one of the largest publicly disclosed primary equity private placements in African history.

The transaction attracted demand 3.7 times larger than the original offering, drawing African and international institutional investors seeking exposure to one of the continent’s largest industrial assets.

The proceeds will finance additional refining and petrochemical capacity, strengthening Nigeria’s industrial base while reducing Africa’s dependence on imported fuels.

Nigeria now aims to increase crude oil production to three million barrels per day by 2030, almost doubling current output.

According to the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), faster permitting, streamlined crude sales approvals and broader regulatory reforms are helping restore confidence in a sector that suffered years of underinvestment.

International companies are also expanding their long-term positions.

Chevron recently strengthened its deep water portfolio after securing a winning bid for offshore block PPL 2010, building on earlier acquisitions alongside TotalEnergies in the Niger Delta.

In a market where multinationals once appeared to be edging back, major international energy companies look increasingly willing to commit capital where regulatory conditions have improved.

The story, however, is no longer just about oil. Nigeria is also starting to attract capital into cleaner and more distributed energy systems.

MOPO, a UK headquartered solar-powered battery rental company backed by Octopus Energy Group, has agreed with Nigeria’s Rural Electrification Agency to support a $75 million expansion through 2030.

That is a small number relative to Nigeria’s needs, but it shows investors appetite is growing when it comes to financing for infrastructure that improves productivity.

The constraints are still there and severe. Inflation is still high as policymakers work to pull it from double digit territory, as incomes of everyday Nigerians and households remain pressured.

Infrastructure deficit also continues to be a challenge, while security risks and how effective critical policies are pursued and implemented put a ceiling on how optimistic we can be.

But capital usually do not wait until every problem has been solved. It flows to where investors believe the direction of travel has become credible.

It appears that’s the signal Nigeria is sending. What remains now is how to seize this moment and make the most of it for investors, operators and the good people of Nigeria.

Quick Signals

Less than two weeks after completing Africa’s largest disclosed private equity placement, Dangote Industries signed an $800 million agreement with China’s Sinoma International to expand its Itori cement plant, southwest Nigeria.

The deal is expected to double output at the plant from 6 million to 12 million tonnes per year, as Dangote bets big on Nigeria’s construction and industrial economy.

S&P Global has agreed to acquire a majority stake in Agusto & Co., one of Africa’s leading domestic credit rating agencies, pending regulatory approval.

Agusto, currently operating across Nigeria, Kenya, Rwanda, and Ghana, will continue issuing independent ratings while combining regional expertise with S&P’s global analytical resources.

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